Date
GMT+01:00
Event
Jul, 17 21:00
TICS
TICS
Country:
Date: Jul, 17 21:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 93.9bln
Forecast: 34.3bln
Actual: -
Period: May

Measures Capital Flow into U.S. Denominated Assets. Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds and money market funds to and from the United States. The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.

A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the US dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country.

Jul, 18 01:30
MI Leading Index
MI Leading Index
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 01:30
Importance: Low
Previous: -0.2% m/m
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Jun

A leading indicator for Australian economic activity calculated by Melbourne Institute.

Jul, 18 09:30
★★★
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 09:30
Importance: High
Previous: 0.4% m/m; 2.4% y/y
Forecast: 0.2% m/m; 2.6% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Jul, 18 09:30
★★
Consumer Price Index-Core
Consumer Price Index-Core
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 09:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 2.1% y/y
Forecast: 2.1% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

Jul, 18 09:30
★★
Retail price index
Retail price index
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 09:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.4% m/m; 3.3% y/y
Forecast: 0.4% m/m; 3.5% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

In the United Kingdom, the Retail Prices Index or Retail Price Index (RPI) is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics.

Jul, 18 09:30
★★
PPI Input
PPI Input
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 09:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 2.8% m/m; 9.2% y/y
Forecast: 0.4% m/m; 10.1% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year.

Jul, 18 09:30
PPI Output
PPI Output
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 09:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.4% m/m; 2.9% y/y
Forecast: 0.3% m/m; 3.2% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.

Jul, 18 09:30
House Price Index
House Price Index
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 09:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 3.9% y/y
Forecast: 3.8% y/y
Actual: -
Period: May

A broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. Apart from serving as an indicator of house price trends, the House Price Index (HPI) provides an analytical tool for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments and housing affordability. It is a weighted, repeat-sales index, which means that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties.

Jul, 18 10:00
★★
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 10:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: 2.0% y/y
Forecast: 2.0% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

Jul, 18 10:00
Consumer Price Index Core
Consumer Price Index Core
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 10:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 1.0% y/y
Forecast: 1.0% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jun

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

Jul, 18 10:30
30-y Bond Auction
30-y Bond Auction
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 10:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 1.06%; 1.2
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Jul
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.
Jul, 18 13:30
★★★
Building Permits
Building Permits
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 13:30
Importance: High
Previous: 1301K; -4.6% m/m
Forecast: 1330K; 2.2% m/m
Actual: -
Period: Jun

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

Jul, 18 13:30
★★
Housing Starts
Housing Starts
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1350K; 5.0% m/m
Forecast: 1320K; -2.2% m/m
Actual: -
Period: Jun

Gauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.

Jul, 18 14:30
Leading Indicators
Leading Indicators
Country:
Date: Jul, 18 14:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 97.0; -0.2% m/m
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: May

Leading Indicators is a composite index designed to forecast trends in the overall economy.

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