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Event Previous Forecast Actual
Sep, 18 21:00
TICS
TICS
Country:
Date: Sep, 18 21:00
Importance: Low
Previous: -36.5bln
Forecast: 65.1bln
Actual: -
Period: Jul

Measures Capital Flow into U.S. Denominated Assets. Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds and money market funds to and from the United States. The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.

A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the US dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country.

-36.5bln 65.1bln -
Sep, 18 23:00
Westpac Consumer Confidence
Westpac Consumer Confidence
Country:
Date: Sep, 18 23:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 108.6
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: 3 quarter

Officially called the Consumer Sentiment Index, this figure measures the level of consumer confidence and is an average of five indices measuring different aspects of consumer fiscal health. This is one of the few indicators that are entirely expectation-based. Households report their views on current buying conditions for household items and where they feel are the "wisest" places to invest savings. Views on future political policy (taxes, politicians, government) and economic conditions (wages, inflation, unemployment) are also surveyed.

Confidence figures are often leading indicators for the consumer spending and the economy as a whole. The headline figure is percentage change in the index value from that of the previous month.

108.6 - -
Sep, 18 23:45
★★
Current Account
Current Account
Country:
Date: Sep, 18 23:45
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.18bln
Forecast: -1.32bln
Actual: -
Period: 2 quarter

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the NZD.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

0.18bln -1.32bln -
Sep, 19 00:50
Trade Balance
Trade Balance
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 00:50
Importance: Low
Previous: -45.6В; -231.2В
Forecast: -144.1В; -483.2В
Actual: -
Period: Aug

The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.

A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.

Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.

The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure.

-45.6В; -231.2В -144.1В; -483.2В -
Sep, 19 01:30
MI Leading Index
MI Leading Index
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 01:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.0% m/m
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Aug

A leading indicator for Australian economic activity calculated by Melbourne Institute.

0.0% m/m - -
Sep, 19 02:30
★★
RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks
RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 02:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -
Christopher Kent is Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor since February 2012. He is responsible for the Bank’s Economic Analysis and Economic Research Departments. He is also Chief Economic Adviser to the RBA Governor. His comments may cast light on the regulator’s position and the Australian dollar exchange rate.
- - -
Sep, 19 06:45
SECO Economic Forecasts
SECO Economic Forecasts
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 06:45
Importance: Low
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) “is the federal government's centre of expertise for all core issues relating to economic policy. Its aim is to ensure sustainable economic growth by putting in place the necessary regulatory and economic policy conditions.” - Source www.seco.admin.ch

SECO Economic Forecasts are released quarterly and include expectations for GDP and its components such as: consumption expenditure (personal and government), construction investment, investment in equipment and software, exports, imports, employment (full time equivalent), rate of unemployment and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- - -
Sep, 19 07:00
PPI
PPI
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 07:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.2% m/m; 3.0% y/y
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Aug

Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

0.2% m/m; 3.0% y/y - -
Sep, 19 07:30
★★★
Bank of Japan Press Conference
Bank of Japan Press Conference
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 07:30
Importance: High
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -

Press conference of the BoJ.

- - -
Sep, 19 09:00
Current Account (sa)
Current Account (sa)
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 23.5bln; 28.5bln
Forecast: 22.4bln
Actual: -
Period: Jul

  The Current Account summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the country. The report acts as a line-item record of how the domestic economy interacts with rest of the world. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis - tracking good and services.

23.5bln; 28.5bln 22.4bln -
Sep, 19 09:00
★★
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -
Andy Haldane is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England and also a voting member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee since June 2014 until May 2017. He was acknowledged as being one amongst the world's 100 most influential people. His speeches are mainly focused on financial stability, monetary issues and market risks. All these topics may provide markets with a direction in the regulator’s situation assessment and its further actions.
- - -
Sep, 19 09:30
★★★
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:30
Importance: High
Previous: 0.0% m/m; 2.5% y/y
Forecast: 0.5% m/m; 2.4% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Aug

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

0.0% m/m; 2.5% y/y 0.5% m/m; 2.4% y/y -
Sep, 19 09:30
★★
Consumer Price Index-Core
Consumer Price Index-Core
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1.9% y/y
Forecast: 1.8% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Aug

CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

1.9% y/y 1.8% y/y -
Sep, 19 09:30
★★
Retail price index
Retail price index
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.1% m/m; 3.2% y/y
Forecast: 0.6% m/m; 3.2% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Aug

In the United Kingdom, the Retail Prices Index or Retail Price Index (RPI) is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics.

0.1% m/m; 3.2% y/y 0.6% m/m; 3.2% y/y -
Sep, 19 09:30
★★
PPI Input
PPI Input
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.5% m/m; 10.9% y/y
Forecast: 0.4% m/m; 9.1% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Aug

A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year.

0.5% m/m; 10.9% y/y 0.4% m/m; 9.1% y/y -
Sep, 19 09:30
PPI Output
PPI Output
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.0% m/m; 3.1% y/y
Forecast: 0.2% m/m; 2.9% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Aug

A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.

0.0% m/m; 3.1% y/y 0.2% m/m; 2.9% y/y -
Sep, 19 09:30
House Price Index
House Price Index
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 09:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 3.0% y/y
Forecast: 2.9% y/y
Actual: -
Period: Jul

A broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. Apart from serving as an indicator of house price trends, the House Price Index (HPI) provides an analytical tool for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments and housing affordability. It is a weighted, repeat-sales index, which means that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties.

3.0% y/y 2.9% y/y -
Sep, 19 10:30
10-y Bond Auction
10-y Bond Auction
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 10:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.33%; 1.2
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Sep
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
0.33%; 1.2 - -
Sep, 19 13:30
★★
Building Permits
Building Permits
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1311K; 1.5% m/m
Forecast: 1310K; 0.5% m/m
Actual: -
Period: Aug

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

1311K; 1.5% m/m 1310K; 0.5% m/m -
Sep, 19 13:30
★★
Housing Starts
Housing Starts
Country:
Date: Sep, 19 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1168K; 0.9% m/m
Forecast: 1235K; 5.7% m/m
Actual: -
Period: Aug

Gauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.

1168K; 0.9% m/m 1235K; 5.7% m/m -
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