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Event Previous Forecast Actual
May, 16 21:00
TICS
TICS
Country:
Date: May, 16 21:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 112.9
Forecast: 44.2
Actual: 161.8bln
Period: Mar

Measures Capital Flow into U.S. Denominated Assets. Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds and money market funds to and from the United States. The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.

A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the US dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country.

112.9 44.2 161.8bln
May, 16 18:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Country:
Date: May, 16 18:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 578
Forecast: -
Actual: 576
Period: May
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
578 - 576
May, 16 15:00
UoM Inflation Expectations
UoM Inflation Expectations
Country:
Date: May, 16 15:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 6.5%; 4.4%
Forecast: -
Actual: 7.3%; 4.6%
Period: May
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
6.5%; 4.4% - 7.3%; 4.6%
May, 16 13:30
Foreign Securities Purchases
Foreign Securities Purchases
Country:
Date: May, 16 13:30
Importance: Low
Previous: -6.46
Forecast: 5.20
Actual: -4.23bln
Period: Mar

Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds, and money market funds to and from Canada.

-6.46 5.20 -4.23bln
May, 16 13:30
Import price index
Import price index
Country:
Date: May, 16 13:30
Importance: Low
Previous: -0.4%; 0.9%
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: 0.1%; 0.1%
Period: Apr

This index reflects import price change per month.

-0.4%; 0.9% -0.4% 0.1%; 0.1%
May, 16 13:30
★★
Housing Starts
Housing Starts
Country:
Date: May, 16 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1339K; -10.1%
Forecast: 1360K
Actual: 1361K; 1.6%
Period: Apr

Gauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.

1339K; -10.1% 1360K 1361K; 1.6%
May, 16 13:30
★★
Building Permits
Building Permits
Country:
Date: May, 16 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1481K; 1.9%
Forecast: 1450K
Actual: 1412K; -4.7%
Period: Apr

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

1481K; 1.9% 1450K 1412K; -4.7%
May, 16 10:00
★★
European Commission Economic Forecasts
European Commission Economic Forecasts
Country:
Date: May, 16 10:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -

Economic forecasts concentrate on the EU, its individual member states, and the euro area but also include outlooks for some of the world's other major economies, and countries that are candidates for EU membership. ECFIN's forecasts are published three times a year in sync with the EU's annual cycle of economic surveillance procedures, known as the European Semester.

- - -
May, 16 10:00
Trade Balance
Trade Balance
Country:
Date: May, 16 10:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 4.44
Forecast: 5.15
Actual: 3.66bln
Period: Mar

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

4.44 5.15 3.66bln
May, 16 10:00
Current Account (sa)
Current Account (sa)
Country:
Date: May, 16 10:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 21.0bln; 24.0bln
Forecast: 17.5
Actual: 27.9bln; 36.8bln
Period: Mar

  The Current Account summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the country. The report acts as a line-item record of how the domestic economy interacts with rest of the world. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis - tracking good and services.

21.0bln; 24.0bln 17.5 27.9bln; 36.8bln
May, 16 09:00
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product
Country:
Date: May, 16 09:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.2%; 2.0%
Forecast: 0.2%; 2.0%
Actual: 0.1%; 1.9%
Period: Apr

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

0.2%; 2.0% 0.2%; 2.0% 0.1%; 1.9%
May, 16 05:30
Industrial Production
Industrial Production
Country:
Date: May, 16 05:30
Importance: Low
Previous: -1.1%; -0.3%
Forecast: -1.1%; -0.3%
Actual: 0.2%; 1.0%
Period: Mar

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Japan. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Japanese industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

-1.1%; -0.3% -1.1%; -0.3% 0.2%; 1.0%
May, 16 04:00
★★
Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now
Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now
Country:
Date: May, 16 04:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: 2.06%
Forecast: -
Actual: 2.29%
Period: 2 quarter
Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise.
2.06% - 2.29%
May, 16 00:50
★★
GDP Deflator
GDP Deflator
Country:
Date: May, 16 00:50
Importance: Medium
Previous: 2.9%
Forecast: 3.2%
Actual: 3.3%
Period: 1 quarter

Broad gauge of inflationary pressures. The GDP Deflator is different from the Consumer Price Index in that it does not take into account changes in the prices of imports and tends to underestimate price changes. The Gross Domestic Product Deflator is also untimely, released quarterly about two months after the reporting period. Nonetheless, it is highly correlated with the CPI and a key indicator of inflation. Consequently, the deflator provides insight into the future direction of monetary policy as the Bank of Japan is inclined to raise interest rates when faced with higher inflation.

Specifically the deflator measures the magnitude of changes in prices for all domestically produced final goods. It is the ratio of output in current prices (nominal GDP) to inflation-adjusted output (real GDP). The headline value is the percentage change in the GDP Deflator from the previous quarter.

2.9% 3.2% 3.3%
May, 16 00:50
★★★
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product
Country:
Date: May, 16 00:50
Importance: High
Previous: 0.6%; 2.2%
Forecast: -0.1%; -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%; -0.7%
Period: 1 quarter

A comprehensive measure of Japan's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country\\\'s overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Yen, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to Japanese GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

0.6%; 2.2% -0.1%; -0.2% -0.2%; -0.7%
May, 15 23:30
★★
Business NZ Manufacturing Index
Business NZ Manufacturing Index
Country:
Date: May, 15 23:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 53.2
Forecast: -
Actual: 53.9
Period: Apr

Индикатор активности в производстве. Аналог Manufacturing PMI. Показывает улучшение (>50) или ухудшение (<50) ситуации в сравнении с предыдущим месяцем. Рост показателя либо превышение прогноза благоприятны для валюты.

53.2 - 53.9
May, 15 15:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Country:
Date: May, 15 15:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 104
Forecast: 111
Actual: 110bln
Period: May

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

104 111 110bln
May, 15 15:00
NAHB Housing Market Index
NAHB Housing Market Index
Country:
Date: May, 15 15:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 40
Forecast: 40
Actual: 34
Period: May

A timely gauge of home sales and expectations for future home building. Based on a small sample of homebuilders, the Housing Market Index is a timely indicator of future US home sales. However, as the index is not as comprehensive as formal housing reports like new home sales or MBA mortgage applications, the index acts more like a supplemental indicator for predicting housing trends.

As such, the NAHB Housing Market Index is still able to provide general insight to where the housing market is heading. Given that new home sales reflect 'big ticket' items that require construction and investment, the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy as a whole. Growth in the housing market will spur subsequent spending, generating demand for goods and services and the employees who provide them.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change from the previous month. The NAHB Housing Market Index divides the Single-Family Sales data into three categories: Present, Next 6 Months and Prospective Buyers Traffic.

40 40 34
May, 15 15:00
Business Inventories
Business Inventories
Country:
Date: May, 15 15:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Period: Mar

Unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.

Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow down, retailers' inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.

Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .

While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories' lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.

The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month.

0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
May, 15 14:15
Capacity Utilization
Capacity Utilization
Country:
Date: May, 15 14:15
Importance: Low
Previous: 77.8%
Forecast: 77.8%
Actual: 77.7%
Period: Apr

Capacity Utilization measures the extent to which US manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy, rising when the economy is vibrant, and falling when demand softens. High capacity utilization also exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in higher demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.

77.8% 77.8% 77.7%
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