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Event Previous Forecast Actual
Jul, 26 18:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 18:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 586
Forecast: -
Actual: 589
Period: Jul
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
586 - 589
Jul, 26 15:00
UoM Inflation Expectations
UoM Inflation Expectations
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 15:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 2.9%; 2.9%
Forecast: 2.9%; 2.9%
Actual: 2.9%; 3.0%
Period: Jul
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
2.9%; 2.9% 2.9%; 2.9% 2.9%; 3.0%
Jul, 26 13:30
Personal Income
Personal Income
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 13:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Period: Jun

Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US . Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy.

0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Jul, 26 13:30
★★
Personal Spending
Personal Spending
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Period: Jun

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jul, 26 13:30
★★
PCE Core
PCE Core
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.1%; 2.6%
Forecast: 0.2%; 2.5%
Actual: 0.2%; 2.6%
Period: Jun

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

0.1%; 2.6% 0.2%; 2.5% 0.2%; 2.6%
Jul, 26 11:30
★★★
Key bank rate
Key bank rate
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 11:30
Importance: High
Previous: 16.00%
Forecast: 18.00%
Actual: 18.00%
Period: Jul
The Bank Rossii decision on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the RUB.
16.00% 18.00% 18.00%
Jul, 26 08:00
GDP
GDP
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 08:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 0.8%; 2.5%
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: 2 quarter

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

0.8%; 2.5% - -
Jul, 26 08:00
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 08:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 12.29%
Forecast: 11.40%
Actual: 11.27%
Period: 2 quarter

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

12.29% 11.40% 11.27%
Jul, 26 06:00
Leading Indicators
Leading Indicators
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 06:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 111.1
Forecast: 111.1
Actual: 111.2
Period: May
This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008. Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.
111.1 111.1 111.2
Jul, 26 00:30
National CPI ex Fresh Food
National CPI ex Fresh Food
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 00:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 2.1%
Forecast: 2.2%
Actual: 2.2%
Period: Jul

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

2.1% 2.2% 2.2%
Jul, 26 00:30
National CPI
National CPI
Country:
Date: Jul, 26 00:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 2.3%
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 2.2%
Period: Jul

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
Jul, 25 15:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 15:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 10
Forecast: 13
Actual: 22bln
Period: Jul

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

10 13 22bln
Jul, 25 14:00
NBB Business Climate
NBB Business Climate
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 14:00
Importance: Low
Previous: -11.1
Forecast: -11.0
Actual: -12.3
Period: Jul

Assesses overall business environment in a country.

-11.1 -11.0 -12.3
Jul, 25 13:30
★★
Continuing Claims
Continuing Claims
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1860K
Forecast: 1860K
Actual: 1851K
Period: Jul

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

1860K 1860K 1851K
Jul, 25 13:30
★★
Unemployment Claims
Unemployment Claims
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 245K
Forecast: 237K
Actual: 235K
Period: Jul

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

245K 237K 235K
Jul, 25 13:30
★★
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.1%; -0.1%
Forecast: 0.3%; 0.2%
Actual: -6.6%; 0.5%
Period: Jun

The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.

0.1%; -0.1% 0.3%; 0.2% -6.6%; 0.5%
Jul, 25 13:30
★★
PCE Core
PCE Core
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 3.7%
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.9%
Period: 2 quarter

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

3.7% 2.7% 2.9%
Jul, 25 13:30
★★
GDP Price Index
GDP Price Index
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 3.1%
Forecast: 2.6%
Actual: 2.3%
Period: 2 quarter

Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change.

3.1% 2.6% 2.3%
Jul, 25 13:30
★★★
GDP
GDP
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 13:30
Importance: High
Previous: 1.4%
Forecast: 2.0%
Actual: 2.8%
Period: 2 quarter

The GDP for the United States is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the US economy on the continental US GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight into the driving forces of the economy.

GDP Influence On Markets
If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy, consumers will be affected by inflation and consequently interest rates will rise. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance

Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.

Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.

On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. GDP actually has three releases, as an Advanced, Preliminary, and Final figure. The Advanced figure is released four weeks following the quarter's end. One month later, the Preliminary GDP is released, followed by the Final GDP measure at the end of the quarter following the reporting quarter. As the most timely measure, the Advanced GDP tends to move markets the most.

1.4% 2.0% 2.8%
Jul, 25 11:00
CBI industrial order books balance
CBI industrial order books balance
Country:
Date: Jul, 25 11:00
Importance: Low
Previous: -18
Forecast: -19
Actual: -32
Period: Jul

This review reflects businessmen sentiment concerning the position of the industrial sector of the economy.

-18 -19 -32
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