FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks
A timely gauge of home sales and expectations for future home building. Based on a small sample of homebuilders, the Housing Market Index is a timely indicator of future US home sales. However, as the index is not as comprehensive as formal housing reports like new home sales or MBA mortgage applications, the index acts more like a supplemental indicator for predicting housing trends.
As such, the NAHB Housing Market Index is still able to provide general insight to where the housing market is heading. Given that new home sales reflect 'big ticket' items that require construction and investment, the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy as a whole. Growth in the housing market will spur subsequent spending, generating demand for goods and services and the employees who provide them.
The report headline is expressed in percentage change from the previous month. The NAHB Housing Market Index divides the Single-Family Sales data into three categories: Present, Next 6 Months and Prospective Buyers Traffic.
A leading indicator for Australian economic activity calculated by Melbourne Institute.
The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.
A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.
Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.
The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure.
Measures quarterly changes in Australian wages. Two versions of the Labor Price Index exist: one which includes bonuses, and one which excludes them. The Labor Price Index is similar to the US Employment Cost Index, an early indicator of wages pressure on inflation. An increase in the index suggests rising inflation pressures because firms tend to eventually pass higher labor costs onto consumers in the form of higher prices.
The headline figure is the quarterly percentage change in the Labor Price Index.
Technical note: The index is constructed by combining 8 separate indexes. The 4 wage price indices are:
• ordinary time hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses index
• ordinary time hourly rates of pay including bonuses index
• total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses index
• total hourly rates of pay including bonuses index
The 4 non-wage price indices are:
• annual and public holiday leave
• superannuation
• payroll tax
• workers' compensation
Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.
A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.
The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.
Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.
This review reflects businessmen sentiment concerning the position of the industrial sector of the economy.
Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.
A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.