Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada's construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.
The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.
CManufacturing Shipments - also known as "shipments of goods of own manufacture" - report the production of goods produced by Canadian establishments in the "Manufacturing Sector (NAICS 31-33)". It measures the Dollar value, not the quantity of manufactured goods produced.
CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.
Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.
The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.
On A Technical Note: The CPI includes over 200 categories of goods and services included, divided into 8 main groups, each with a different weight: Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical Care, Education and Communication, Recreation, Apparel, and Other Goods and Services.
CPI Excluding Food and Energy - United States
The CPI is also reported excluding food and energy; two of its most volatile components. These components are particularly sensitive to temporary economic factors like oil prices, natural disasters and seasonal affects. Consequently, CPI excluding Food and Energy provides a more stable figure, but at the cost of overlooking two significant sectors in the economy (together food and energy comprise nearly a quarter of the goods included in the CPI).
The figure is the monthly percent change in the index.
An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, typically based on a data sampling that is extrapolated to model an entire country. In the U.S., the retail sales report is a monthly economic indicator compiled and released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce. The report covers the previous month, and is released about two weeks after the month-end. Comparisons are made against historical data; year-over-year comparisons are the most-reported metric because they account for the seasonality of consumer-based retail.
Survey assessing business conditions and expectations of manufacturing executives in New York . Though the survey is relatively new and New York has a considerably small number of manufacturers, the report has shown a promising correlation to the Philadelphia Fed Index and the market moving ISM Manufacturing Survey. Thus Empire serves as a useful earlier indicator of overall manufacturing in the US .
Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the breakeven point. A high figure is bullish for the dollar, indicating positive business sentiment conducive to growth in production. A low or negative number signals poor business conditions.
Unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.
Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow down, retailers' inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.
Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .
While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories' lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.
The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month.
A timely gauge of home sales and expectations for future home building. Based on a small sample of homebuilders, the Housing Market Index is a timely indicator of future US home sales. However, as the index is not as comprehensive as formal housing reports like new home sales or MBA mortgage applications, the index acts more like a supplemental indicator for predicting housing trends.
As such, the NAHB Housing Market Index is still able to provide general insight to where the housing market is heading. Given that new home sales reflect 'big ticket' items that require construction and investment, the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy as a whole. Growth in the housing market will spur subsequent spending, generating demand for goods and services and the employees who provide them.
The report headline is expressed in percentage change from the previous month. The NAHB Housing Market Index divides the Single-Family Sales data into three categories: Present, Next 6 Months and Prospective Buyers Traffic.
The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.
Measures Capital Flow into U.S. Denominated Assets. Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds and money market funds to and from the United States. The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.
A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.
A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the US dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country.